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Quantifying Quantitative Easing ~ David Morgan
November 5, 2010 
Issue 84

S&GS Notes: Talking about Quantitative Easing in today's newsletter…it's all over the news.

There's been QE, QE1, and now the Fed has announced their plan to embark on QE2. With that announcement we've seen the prices of gold and silver rise dramatically in just hours/days… What exactly is QE? Why does it have this affect on silver and gold? What other affects will we see in other markets? I'm no expert on these things… I read, I listen, I learn… here's what the 'Guys That Know' have to say….

Why should you care about this? Well, for starters, it has a tremendous impact on your silver/gold investment...and it will have a BIG IMPACT on your budget in the coming months, food prices, and the prices of other basic necessities.

And… regardless of what you think of Glenn Beck… don't miss his 2-part Video on the subject of QE… explained as only Glenn can do it...

Quantifying Quantitative Easing

From David Morgan…

Many investors are struggling to understand the ramifications of the recently announced QE2 plan. Quantitative easing, or more simply known as money printing, is a dilution transaction similar to issuing more shares for a stock. The dilution has two primary affects: a decrease in the value of the initial shares and a redistribution of wealth from the original owners to the new owners.

The most significant difference between stock dilution and currency dilution is of course that publicly traded companies tend to use the funds raised through dilution to add value by investing those funds - whereas governments don't add value by diluting a currency.

In this case, $900 billion will be diluted to purchase US treasuries so the primary benefactor of the quantitative easing will be the US federal government and the financial institutions selling that debt. However, capital flows can rarely be controlled and the newly created money will find its way into other markets and asset classes.

Interestingly, the $100 billion per month figure that has been mentioned as the target rate for QE is almost exactly what is needed to rollover maturing treasuries coming due - so it could be argued that the plan is to effectively finance the US Federal debt which would eventually lead to a complete monetization of the treasury market. Supporting this argument is the recent projection made by ZeroHedge that the Federal Reserve will own more treasuries than China by the end of November.

If the QE2 funds went into the currency market, its value would fall in half. However, $900 billion is roughly 6 percent of US Federal Debt. Inflation is defined by the growth in the money supply. If using M2, the QE2 plan would dilute the money supply by 10 percent. $900 billion represents 36% of the world's gold supply, so an equivalent move upward in price could be seen if the money finds its way into the gold market. QE2 is 37 times the size of the world's estimated silver supply so a flow of capital into the silver market could be explosive.

A dollar on November 1st is now worth 92 cents if measured in treasuries or 91 cents if measured with the money supply. It can be seen that inflation as measured by the growth in money supply is projected to increase by 10 to 20 percent on an annualized basis.

The result will be a double digit real negative interest rate and a carry trade opportunity to sell treasuries and other US dollar secured paper at a cost of near 0 percent while accumulating real assets such as precious metals and other resources that cannot be diluted.

Glenn Beck Explains Quantitative Easing
Part I & II

 


Other Articles of Interest

Not A Good Time To
Be Short Silver

Tradeplacer.com

Why The Price Of Gold
Soared After the QE Announcement

Bill Bonner, Daily Reckoning

How High Would Gold & Silver Prices Go if GS, JPM and HSBC Were Barred from Participation in Gold/Silver Markets?
JS Kim - SmartKnowledge

Gold Jumps $50 in 21 Hours As Fed Prints Money
Adrian Ash

Silver Blasts Through
To 30 Year High

Mad Hedge Fund Trader



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"I doubt we will ever see sub $1300 gold again for the duration of this secular bull. Now that the HUI and silver have broken to new all time highs we have a rare condition in that the entire precious metal sector is trading in a vacuum with no real overhead resistance. This is the only sector in the world in this position. That is the recipe for an incredible move higher in a short period of time as funds begin to chase the out-performance in the precious metal sector."

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